季風人文講壇第82期：Minxin Pei 裴敏欣

裴敏欣： 破碎的中國夢：經濟改革如何使極權主義覆辟

The Broken China Dream: How Reform Revived Totalitarianism

with Minxin Pei 裴敏欣

November 9, 2025｜In English

在習近平的統治下，中國在過去十多年里出現了全面大倒退。鄧小平的所謂“新權威主義”模式已被習的新極權主義模式替代。大多數人認為習的路線和鄧的“改革開放”國策水火不相容。但是縱觀毛澤東時代後中國的政治發展，回歸極權主義統治是中共實施鄧小平的一黨制統治下的現代化的戰略的一個大概率的結局。

Under Xi Jinping’s rule, China has experienced a comprehensive regression over the past decade. Deng Xiaoping’s so-called “neo-authoritarian” model has been replaced by Xi’s new totalitarianism. Most observers see Xi’s path as fundamentally incompatible with Deng’s policy of “reform and opening up.” However, looking at China’s political evolution since the Mao era, a return to totalitarian rule was a highly probable outcome of the Chinese Communist Party’s one-party modernization strategy under Deng Xiaoping.


About the Speaker 

裴敏欣是加州克萊蒙特麥肯納學院的政治系教授。他出生在上海，1984年來美留學。1991年在哈佛大學獲政治學博士。曾任普林斯頓大學政治系助理教授和卡內基國際和平基金會資深研究員。他已出版四本專著 （1）從改良到革命：共產主義在中國和蘇聯的消失（1994）；（2）中國陷入陷阱的轉型：發展型專制政權的局限 （2006）；（3）中國的裙帶資本主義：政權潰敗的動態（2016）；（4） 哨兵國家：監控和中國的專制政權的生存 （2024），都由哈佛大學出版社出版。
Minxin Pei is a Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna College. Born in Shanghai, he came to the United States in 1984 and earned his Ph.D. in Political Science from Harvard University in 1991. He previously taught at Princeton University and was a Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.